Based on the principle of balanced income distribution, this paper constructs a “complementary substitution” mathematical model for the income distribution of family support and individual pension, and estimates appropriate levels for both family support and individual pension. This paper also studies the optimization of economic structure of family support and individual pension from the theoretical and empirical perspectives. The results show that: (1) the income distribution of family support and individual pension substitutes each other while they are complementary under the condition of prolonging working age; (2) the equilibrium time point of the replacement of family support and individual pension is 2 children, and the marginal substitution efficiency of family support pension and individual pension decreases; (3) with the increase of life expectancy, the family support income distribution structure changes, the family support coefficient decreases, and the rise of individual pension coefficient is faster than the drop of family support coefficient; (4) the “complementary and substitution” effects between family support and individual pension follow an invertedV curve, and the turning point is close to the replacement level of total fertility rate of 2.1.

With the trend of increasingly longer life expectancy, the pension risks rise. Under the constraint of actuarial equilibrium in the life cycle of pension insurance, policy designs largely affect peoples livelihood and consumption in the postepidemic period. The results show that: longer life expectancy will exacerbate decline of the replacement rate of average social wage and increase the risk of pension security in the last years of life. Increasing the pension adjustment index of older retirees is one of the policy options to solve the problem. However, raising the adjustment level will raise the actuarial imbalance risk over the life cycle. It is difficult to solve the dilemma between raising the pension payment and maintaining the actuarial balance by raising the minimum number of years for contributions. Delaying retirement as well as linking the calculation and payment coefficient of individual account, life expectancy, and adjustment index can realize the Pareto improvement of raising the level of security and maintaining the actuarial balance.

Using cross-country panel data this paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and economic growth,and further examines the impact of population aging on the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. We find that there is a significant negative relationship between population aging and economic growth. The increase of the overall dependency ratio would decrease the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. The impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the probability of being fallen into in the middle-income trap is not significant. Enhancement of human capital and technology progress would increase the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. Therefore,measures should be taken to cope with the negative effect of aging on the economic growth in order to avoid the middle-income trap. These measures include enhancing the level of human capital and increasing investment on research and development.

The purpose of investigating the Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources ( PSCL) of China is to examine the coordinated development relationship between land output benefit and population survival needs under the current urban and rural population structure. We build a general PSCL model and the first -order ( PSCL1 ) and second-order ( PSCL2 ) exponential PSCL models，with the PSCL high and low moderate line and the test standards，to conduct the statistical analysis of the national and provincial PSCL. Results show that China’s existing PSCL1 is higher and moderate test is adequate，but PSCL2 is lower and moderate test is inadequate. Under the current level of urbanization，the bottom line of 1.8 billion mu arable land could only meet the lower limit of the demand of the current urban and rural populations，and the balance of population-land relation would occur in 2030. China’s PSCL is affected by urban and rural population growth，urbanization level and land output benefit，which are the key factors to improve PSCL in China.

Farmers’ current status and the factors influencing their participation in the New Rural Social Pension Insurance are central to a successful conduct of the insurance pilot work.Drawing on data from a sample survey in Liaoning Province’s Zhangwu County,this paper examines patterns and determinants of farmer’s participation in the insurance by individual characteristics,policy confidence,and policy implementation.The survey shows that there are institutional barriers to participating in the New Rural Pension Insurance.The polit policies have attracted participants who are at low income,low education,poor health,and elder ages approaching insurance return.Understanding of the policy,convenience of the procedures for insurance participation,and attitude of service providers are the factors that have positive impact on participation.Based on the analysis,this paper discusses policy implications for improvement and development of the insurance,including establishing incentives for participating in the insurance with individual accounts,raising awareness of service,ensuring policy sustainability,and establishing linkage mechanisms for a variety of pension systems.